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Weather Risk Analysis

"A professional forecaster looks at a potentially dangerous weather situation which is a few days off and says to himself, "We've got to keep an eye on this. In the next day or so it may really blow up into something." Nevertheless, since the odds are low that something bad will happen--perhaps just one in twenty--nothing goes into the official forecast at this time.

From our perspective, however, we want to know about all the risk factors, even if they are slight. We need to weigh these factors against the time neccessary for a passage; the seaworthiness of the boat and experience of the crew; and the alternate ports of refuge available if we get caught out.

Since this risk factor information is rarely available in forecasts, how does the average mariner go about making informed decisions?

That is one of the major inspirations for Mariner's Weather Handbook-to help you do your own risk analysis for any given weather situation. From explaining the basics of what forms weather, to discussing tactics, rules, and real-life examples for specific regions around the world, all the information in the book is organized to achieve the goal of risk analysis.

Mariner's Weather Handbook covers both temperate and tropical weather systems separately, and in great detail. Within each section you will find information about how to analyze various combinations of weather variables, always with an eye on worst-case scenarios. You will be shown a variety of tactics to be used in light, moderate, and heavy-weather situations. (Click here to see the Table of Contents). This is done for both Northern and Southern Hemispheres, with drawings, examples, tactics, and rules appropriate to each region.

Factors to Watch

Mariner's Weather Handbook will walk you through the common risk factors for which you should always be on watch.

Take minor tropical disturbances which migrate to higher latitudes. Any time you see a wiggle on a synoptic chart indicating a tropical disturbance you need to look towards the higher latitudes to see if a potential source of cold dry air is nearby. If it is, this may provide the necessary ingredient for a rapidly intensifing storm. That's exactly the scenario that occured with the Queen's Birthday Storm off New Zealand in 1994.

In higher latitudes secondary lows forming off of dying depressions can combine with the older system and rapildy intensify (the 1979 Fastnet storm was this type of event). Secondary lows usually do not pack a strong punch, but occasionally they do - so you need to be alert to the potential for trouble with this type of situation.

Another scenario which must be watched is the transition of a tropical storm to the higher latitudes. The upper atmospheric conditions necessary for this to occur are well known, and when you're planning a passage in the fall towards the tropics, you will want to keep an eye on any disturbances closer to the equator (Hurricane Mitch came all the way from Central America to the East Coast of the U.S. to affect boats headed to the West Indies this past fall).Mariner's Weather Handbook will walk you through the upper atmosphere conditions which make it possible for a tropical storm to move into temperate latitudes, so you will know when the risk of this occurence makes it prudent to wait in port a few extra days before setting out on a new passage.

Another example is the impact of warm water on cold fronts. That's why the Gulf Stream can be so dangerous in frontal weather. The recent blow which struck the Sydney-Hobart race fleet intensified rapidly on coming in contact with the warm current off southeast Australia. You will find numerous examples of these situations in Mariner's Weather Handbook.

In most cases the weather will be fine. But you want to have the odds with you as much as possible. Sometimes by delaying your departure a day or two you can reduce the potential risks substantially. Mariner's Weather Handbook is designed to facilitate this decision-making process.

Reserve your copy on-line today for $69.95 and we will include the CD-ROM edition for only $19.95 - a $50 value. Click here to order Mariner's Weather Handbook.

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