Weather Forecasts

	June 2003, Malaika on anchor in Colon, Panama. No one forecast this, but we got it anyway!

Weather information? Where to get it and then what to do with it! Well, that would depend on your conditioning, your mindset.

Working as commercial fishermen on the Indian Ocean, we had access to be best forecasts available. We had satellite photos of currents, access to 5-7 day forecasts, and hourly updates from the Met Office. Our observations were that they had a 50/50 accuracy rate. Not that this information determined whether we went to sea or not. We might delay departure for 24 hours but once at sea, you stayed there for the month, with one cold front passing behind the other, and only the degree of gale-force winds varying, we used weather forecasts as pace setters. That is why we are of the 'we got what we got!' mindset.

So if you want to know what the weather is doing today, stick your head out of MALAIKA's hatch. If you want a forecast, check out the moon.

Sitting through these storms month after month, we noticed a pattern. Not ruled by the clock, but by the calendar. Not the Gregorian calendar we know, but Nature's calendar regulated by the moon.

4 cycles of 7 = 28 days.

Starting with the new moon + 7 days to FQ + 7 to full moon + 7 to LQ.

The moon pulls the waters on earth, our bodies included, and at full moon the gravitational pull is said to increase by up to 10%. The most visible effect would have to be the tides, with maximum push/pull being 2-3 days after the full/new moon. An increase in swell and wind speeds is also experienced.

The squid would go into feeding frenzies one day before full/new moon until the storm arrived 2-3 days later, and feeding would cease as if some unheard whistle was blown to call the halt! (End dinner.)

Our other observations were:

When the new moon is first seen, if lying flat on its back, it foretells a drought, if partially inclined so that a pail of water might be hung on the lower horn and not spill, fine weather is denoted. If it appears to stand nearly upright, so it would not hold water, then it denotes rain and is called a wet moon.

If near the time of full moon there is a general mist before sunrise, or if the moon rises clear, fine weather can be expected for a while. If the moon rises pale, wet weather may be expected. If it rises red, expect wind.

A halo or ring around the moon in fine weather denotes a storm approaching; the larger the circle, the nearer the rain. Two or three rings spotted or spread out calls for a storm of long continuance soon.

If fine weather changes to wet near full/new moon and remains so until the second day, this wet weather will probably last until the next phase of the moon and not change then, or only slightly till the next full/new moon occurs. If it still has not changed then a full month of said weather will occur until next full/new moon.

The same applies to a change from wet to dry weather just before full/new moon.

Farmers have long since used the moon's phases for planting and harvesting. During the first and second quarters the moon is said to be increasing in light, and the interior core is said to be warming. The full moon and last quarter are decreasing moons, and the interior temperature cooling. Crops whose growth is above the ground should be planted when the earth is internally warm, i.e. first to second quarters. Crops whose root growth are dependent on their value, should be planted when the core cools, i.e. last quarter.

Using the moon as our yardstick, it is easier to spot the subtle changes in the build up to full/new moon, which helps you feel more synchronised rather than at the mercy of.

As much as we love technology we simply cannot afford it, and if we had to wait until we could, well that's just unthinkable, besides we have never really trusted it. Using common sense, practicing awareness, goes a lot further than an inaccurate weather report.

(Footnote. Lyall Watson's Heaven's Breath: A Natural History of the Wind is a must read for anyone wanting to learn about the weather.)